Web Trends

Frogbase Coverage

Trendspotting

Sifting through the people, companies, applications, and ideas building the Web.

 

Short Term Trends

  • Local and Topical Web Indexes – We formally monitor thousands of local Web sites in the Wichita and Kansas City metro areas in addition to many popular regional sites (Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri). We identify, track and document popular Web metrics to establish rank, reach and audience affinity of sites in relation to each other and the greater Web. We also use these formulas and methods to create custom indexes for clients on any given topic, genre or geographic location.
  • Popular Social Bookmarks – Social bookmarks provide an excellent window to Web-user patterns and trends. We buzz-monitor top news stories, videos, podcasts and blog entries bouncing around on top social bookmarking sites. Local and global scope.
  • Popular Blogs – Where are the most popular blogs? Which blogs are popular within given genres or demographic groups? Local and Global scope.
  • Popular and Upcoming Web Applications – We keep a close eye on new and established Web applications. We identify and track releases, delays and other development events.
  • Search Engine Keywords – We track the rise and fall of popular search engine keywords and phrases. Viral, Event or Cyclically driven.
  • Web Ad Buying Trends – We track the type and volume of Web ads businesses are buying right now. We also keep a close eye on ad rate trends.
  • Color Trends – No small thing. We look for colors on the move. We look to designers in the art, graphic and fashion world to tell us which colors are (and will be) popular, functional and aesthetically pleasing to our client's customers. We reject flaky theories of color psychology. In the end, we understand that "color novelty" is the real subliminal influence at work.
  • Web Design Trends – Finding the simplest, most functional, profitable and aesthetically pleasing designs is our goal. We closely watch the top designers and their experiments in color, layout, user interface, navigation and other design elements.

Mid Term Trends

  • Mobile - The mobile web is getting interesting. The iPhone, Android (the so-called 'gPhone') and ubiquitous mobile broadband is radically, and permanently changing how we live. How will Verizon use the 700 MHz frequency band? What kind of partner will Google make? Will networks really be open? Issues we monitor.
  • Web 3.0 – (Should probably be called Web 2.1, as it is more of an extension of Web 2.0 and much less remarkable than the Web 1.0 to 2.0 transition.) Web 3.0 looks to expand on many design and graphical elements of Web 2.0. Look for more semantics, usage of Artificial Intelligence and extension into mobile services.
  • Google, Verizon & Big Telcoms – Legal and PR battles will continue to be waged between Google, major Telcoms and other big media players. If Google wins out, they will determine (to a large extent) the near term structure of the Web. Should the major Telecoms win, the Web will be more constrained, more costly to exploit, but arguably more secure.
  • Prediction Markets - A good tool for identifying useful trends. These speculative markets were first theorized by Nobel prize winning economist Friedrich Hayek and first implemented by the University of Iowa Electronic Markets. Prediction markets indicate productive business trends, market confidence and can confirm the accuracy of prices for certain goods and services.

Long Term

  • Accelerating Technological Change – Moore's Law and Kurwiel's Expansion (a.k.a. Law of Accelerating Returns). These theories predict continuing exponential growth in technology over the next 20+ years. People often interpret this growth as linear, which grossly underestimates the true speed and trajectory of advancement. Imprudent companies, industries and entire sectors of the global economy will be left behind due to this inability to distinguish linear from exponential technological change. Translation? It's all changing faster than you think.

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